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Teji Mandi Explains: Is turnaround likely in trade? India’s exports exceed pre-COVID-19 level in April

India's April exports rise to over $30 bn amid COVID-19
Written by Expert News

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Today’s hot headlines circled around trade deficit numbers where the deficit expanded to US$15.2 billion from US$ 13.9 billion in March, 2021. On a month-on-month basis, exports also declined by 12% while imports went down by 6%. The numbers look grim due to the straining domestic demand amid the Covid-II wave.

Exports Rebound

On a year-on-year basis, the exports figure looked pretty good as a result of low base effect. For instance, India’s exports rose by 197% in April, 2021 on the back of jewellery and engineering goods. All segments of exports reported growth- non-oil exports rose 201%, jewellery saw 84x growth while engineering goods went up 235% in April 2021.

There’s an expectation of exports faring better in the months to come followed by improvement in growth prospects of major trade partners like the US and Europe. However, input cost pressures could dampen the firm’s demand for goods with buying of raw materials in the coming months if the costs continue to remain elevated. Since these higher costs can’t be passed on to the customers, it will likely lead up to larger build-up inventories.

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